Stock markets, like trees, don't grow to the sky, even if the Dow and the S P 500 keep gaining ground and hitting new record highs. (The S 500 is up 170% since March 2009)

Still, the risks are rising for the stock market. Stock prices have climbed relentlessly this year and even more to the point have not corrected 10% in over 2 years. The bearish percentage of the Investors Intelligence Survey is only 16.5%; that means 83.5% of market opinion makers are bullish. In fact there are far fewer bears on November 30, 2013 that at the peak of the market in either 2000, the eve of dot com bubble bursting ,or in 2007 just as the credit bubble was about to blow a near depression our way. One reason: the market peaked in March 2000 at 26 times earnings, while the multiple today is 19.5 times earnings. (see chart on the right) This is called the curse of complacency, but it may continue until it doesn't any longer. Trust Game Joe Flacco Jersey me; the market should not have been selling at 26 times earnings in March, 2000. Smart money was short the NASDAQ index and just waiting for the denouement.

Another worrisome sign: almost 2 of every 3 technology IPOs are being sold to the public without any profits at all. In the broader market "multiple expansion is driving stock market performance to a far greater degree than earnings while earnings themselves are being driven to a remarkable extent by share buybacks," writes Christopher Wood in his Nov. 29 "GREED fear" market comment. The other force driving stock prices is the growing awareness that Quantitative Easing may be extended further in the future than anyone expects. The nation's money supply is up 30%, but the money is sitting on bank balance sheets and not being put to work creating profits as the near record low velocity of money shows.

No matter. The Fed does not see a stock market bubble in the future even though leverage through margin accounts is up 70% from summer of 2010 levels, which when charted alongside the chart of the S P 500 Elite Terrell Suggs Jersey clearly signals a market top similar to the relationship between margin and stock prices in 2000 and 2007. I'm not a chartist, but many should be soon obsessed with this similarity.

One of the most outspoken bears is Outside the Box's John Maudlin, who wrote an open letter to the FOMC this week on "Recognizing the Valuation Bubble in Equities." You have to pay close attention to Maudlin's reasoning, which I'm obliged to disclose are based on the opinions of investor John Hussman, a closely followed investment adviser. He says "while price/earnings multiples appear only moderately elevated, those multiples themselves reflect earnings that embed record profit margins that stand about 70% above their historical norms." Get that? Stocks are priced too high because expected record profits are too far above normal corporate earning power. By this rule of thumb, Maudlin reckons that "market valuations are well above any point prior to the late 1990s market bubble." Meaning that it's 2000 all over again, as profit margins must revert to mean sooner or later.

Things could be too good to improve, but they could improve based solely on stock market momentum until either the economy slows from its already stagnant condition, or some outside event like Obamacare becomes an excuse for selling. I bet that profit taking rules for the rest of December.

Given the substantial gain in the S 500 since mid 2009, the best strategy is to assess the likelihood of a www.nflshopauthenticonline.com/nike-torrey-smith-jersey-c-1_53_63.html reversal in the stock market to a bear market phase. That model has been successful in predicting (in sample) all the reversals between bull and bear markets over the past 50 years.

I would certainly be interested also, but I expect it may be something FA wants to keep close. If you are willing to share, please send it along. I'll provide the address. I have to agree with the assessment, but after the first, I expect there will be some point at which effects from Obamacare will begin to shake out and will provide some impetus one way or the nflshopauthenticonline.com/nike-jimmy-smith-jersey-c-1_53_62.html other to the stock market. Whether or not the market moves very much will probably depend on Obamacare's effects vector (magnitude and direction).

If the stock market heads south, I would have to question how far it would go. If one pulls money out, where is it going to? I would expect money pressure would keep it from dropping much. I realize the proceeds from a sale could be pulled back into a savings account or perhaps put into another investment, but there's nothing on the radar in the way of Nike Terrell Suggs Jersey a good alternative investment.

"It was the best of times", profits are steady and strong, and "it was the worst of times", growth is almost non existent. The thing that concerns me the most is the margin account leverage. Too much and it doesn't take much of a negative slide to set off calls and forced sales. We all know what's going to happen then.

Our ability to leverage through credit is a major reason for our financial and business success. While there are humps and bumps in our way, it has done pretty well for us. Our downfall in the worst cases is the slide from credit justified leverage to speculative excess. I would lobby for stronger regulation on speculation by entities without an operational interest in the market.

I see the full effects of the Obaamacre fallout rolling forward like a freight train toward a broken bridge. While it is evident that retail sales are not robust, but are up somewhat, the big money is from dividends and stock sales, and not from the majority who are getting by on sub inflation wage growth. The blue collar working class is holding back, right now, because of anticipated higher medical expenses whether or not they currently have coverage.

The preponderance of reports tell us that most ACA plans people are forced into buying are claiming a larger percentage of discretionary capital. Whether or not the insurance plan is a better deal, or not, is irrelevant. Those who are not covered believe that a percentage will be confiscated by the IRS in short order.

Kathleen Sebelius once equated the ACA cost to young people Nike Joe Flacco Jersey as being "like making a car payment", and that would be nice if they have the money for the new car and health insurance both. They do not have. Remember what the working class has not yet recovered from over the past eleven months : The end of the SSI tax holiday. Two percent down, another 1 or two percent to go.